And the Biden administration’s declared goal of negotiating a “longer and stronger” deal with Iran concerns many Iranian politicians.
![iran nuclear deal vox youtube iran nuclear deal vox youtube](https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/qdfthmp-TzOunnWjAW9hTAHW_rM=/0x0:1010x568/1600x900/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46744080/Peacekeeper_missile_after_silo_launch.0.0.jpg)
![iran nuclear deal vox youtube iran nuclear deal vox youtube](https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/gcTD8ENsrdf_TCCFCbUEuPj_TMc=/0x0:4928x2772/1600x900/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/46955230/GettyImages-483014024.0.0.jpg)
There is also a growing sense in Tehran that the Democrats are too weak to secure the White House for a second term – raising the prospect that any benefits Iran gains under a new deal will be lost in two years. More importantly, it would be a political catastrophe for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei if he was seen to have been cheated by the United States once again, especially at a time when a transition process to choose his successor may be under way. Now that conservative factions fully control the government, parliament, and judiciary in Tehran, Iranian leaders have no desire to risk their reputations by sealing another agreement with Washington. Iranian leaders have little confidence that a revived nuclear deal would be durable, as they recognise – after the experience of dealing with President Donald Trump – that no one US administration can force its successor to abide by the agreement. To achieve this, they need to clear three major obstacles.įirstly, the fundamental problem in Tehran with the return of the JCPOA is more political than economic. These moves make it even more complicated to implement the Vienna agreement.ĭespite this dark outlook, there are some signs that the Biden and Raisi administrations could come up with innovative solutions to the stand-off – by moving beyond the IRGC designation issue to consider other gestures that could restore the nuclear deal. In recent days, Iran reported to the agency that it has begun to use advanced centrifuges at its underground nuclear site. Iran responded by disconnecting some cameras in its facilities, which may have significantly undermined what the agency calls its “continuity of knowledge” about Iranian nuclear activities. In June, 30 of the 35 countries on the board of the International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution censuring Iran for its lack of cooperation and credible explanations about the agency’s investigations into past Iranian conduct on nuclear issues. The country has also impeded inspections and other monitoring that provides crucial oversight of its nuclear activities. As it stands, the US and Iran are unlikely to reach an agreement on reciprocal steps the Biden administration insists are necessary to remove the designation.Īs the impasse continues, Iran has now expanded its nuclear activities far beyond the limits of the 2015 nuclear deal. So far, despite sustained shuttle diplomacy by the European Union, negotiators have been unable to resolve the thorniest outstanding issue between Tehran and Washington: the United States’ designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a foreign terrorist organisation. Borrell’s visit could create the diplomatic momentum needed to end the current deadlock and avert further escalation. In recent days, the Iranian foreign minister has held high-level discussions with his Russian and Chinese counterparts on the fate of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). The growing distrust between the West and Iran could lead them both to miscalculate.
![iran nuclear deal vox youtube iran nuclear deal vox youtube](https://cloudfront.mediamatters.org/static/uploader/image/2018/05/02/anti-iran-deal-hawks-nuclear-deal.png)
The talks have stalled, tensions between Iran and the West over nuclear issues have sharply increased, and there has been dangerous escalation between Israel and Iran. But the deal is now at grave risk of unravelling. At talks in Vienna in March this year, negotiators made substantial progress towards bringing Iran and the United States back into compliance with the agreement. An estimate from the national statistics agency shows that, while the active population will fall 6.7 percent by 2060, the number of retired people will grow 263 percent.EU High Representative Josep Borrell is on his way to Tehran to make an eleventh-hour attempt to salvage the Iran nuclear deal. Under Brazil’s pension system, the active labor force pays for the pensions of the currently retired.
![iran nuclear deal vox youtube iran nuclear deal vox youtube](https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/J-A7BDcsQwCHezTMlAeegsnedDs=/0x0:1851x1254/1200x0/filters:focal(0x0:1851x1254):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/3559510/464050403.0.jpg)
Left alone, the cost of private sector pensions would more than double by 2060 to 17.2 percent of GDP from 8.1 percent currently. Government expenditures on pensions amount to roughly 13 percent of gross domestic product, according to official figures. The amended bill was first read in Congress on April 19. Both Temer and his pension initiative are unpopular, and he’s had to accept a range of concessions to win support from lawmakers who are under pressure from their constituents. Similar efforts fell short under former heads of state Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Facing a make-or-break year to pull Brazil out of its worst recession on record, President Michel Temer is betting that reforming the nation’s pension system will restore public and investor confidence.